SPC Convective Outlooks https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Storm Prediction Center en-us None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Thu, 22 May 2025 20:01:02 +0000 Thu, 22 May 2025 20:01:02 +0000 general http://validator.w3.org/feed/rss2.html 1 http://weather.gov/images/xml_logo.gif SPC Convective Outlooks https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html SPC May 22, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected through the afternoon and evening across the southern Plains, especially across north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards, with a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible. ...Southern Plains including southern OK/northern Texas... Initially elevated, scattered, upscale-growing storms have evolved this morning across south-central Oklahoma. These storms will likely persist south-southeastward along the baroclinic gradient, potentially becoming increasingly surface based this afternoon. Additional southwest-peripheral development is also anticipated generally near the Red River as outflow/differential heating interfaces with the synoptic boundary with an aggressively destabilizing boundary layer, with upwards of 2500-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE plausible across far southwest Oklahoma into a broader part of nearby north Texas. Wind profiles will support supercells with the initial/renewed development, with clusters otherwise persisting/evolving with the ongoing Red River-vicinity storms and with anticipated additional development later today across southwest Oklahoma into/across the Low Rolling Plains of Texas. Very large hail is possible along with damaging wind potential, and some tornado risk may exist as well, although low-level shear/SRH will tend to remain modest overall. ...Southern/Eastern Florida... Seasonally cool 500-mb temperatures (-8 to -10 deg C) and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast equatorward of a large-scale eastern U.S. upper trough over the East. Deep westerly flow favors an east coast sea breeze, and this should be where convection focuses as temperatures warm through the upper 80s and lower 90s. Localized severe gusts and large hail are the primary threats with this diurnally maximized convection. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic States... Sufficient buoyancy coincident with moderately strong wind profiles may support isolated severe low-topped storms this afternoon through around sunset in vicinity of a secondary frontal zone/triple point. ...Central High Plains... The eastward-migrating mid-level trough over the northern Rockies will favor southeasterly low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains. Modest moisture coupled with strong heating will yield 250-750 J/kg SBCAPE by mid-afternoon east of the Front Range. While storms should remain relatively isolated, elongated straight-line hodographs will support east-southeastward moving storms within an environment featuring steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8 deg C/km). Isolated large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts will be possible. ...Northern Idaho/southwest Montana/northwest Wyoming... Some stronger to locally severe low-topped storms may occur later today within a modestly moist/unstable environment ahead of the amplifying shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain region. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 05/22/2025 

Read more Thu, 22 May 2025 16:43:04 +0000 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html/202505222001 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html SPC May 22, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected through the afternoon and evening across the southern Plains, especially within the Low Rolling Plains into parts of North Texas. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards, with a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible. ...20Z Update... The cluster of supercells that move through south-central Oklahoma and North Texas earlier have diminished in intensity. In their wake an outflow boundary has drifted southwestward into Northwest Texas and parts of the Low Rolling Plains. Here, thunderstorms have recently developed. Large buoyancy and moderate effective shear will continue to support large/very large hail with the strongest storms. Additional towering cumulus are developing in the South Plains along the surface trough/dryline. This activity should intensify this afternoon and tend to move east/southeast along the outflow boundary. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Strong mixing has been noted in central Texas where dewpoints have fallen into the low 50s F in some places. As this air moves toward convection farther north, storms may have some tendency to become more outflow dominant. Should a more organized cluster/MCS develop, wind gusts of 75+ mph would be possible. ..Wendt.. 05/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025/ ...Southern Plains including southern OK/northern Texas... Initially elevated, scattered, upscale-growing storms have evolved this morning across south-central Oklahoma. These storms will likely persist south-southeastward along the baroclinic gradient, potentially becoming increasingly surface based this afternoon. Additional southwest-peripheral development is also anticipated generally near the Red River as outflow/differential heating interfaces with the synoptic boundary with an aggressively destabilizing boundary layer, with upwards of 2500-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE plausible across far southwest Oklahoma into a broader part of nearby north Texas. Wind profiles will support supercells with the initial/renewed development, with clusters otherwise persisting/evolving with the ongoing Red River-vicinity storms and with anticipated additional development later today across southwest Oklahoma into/across the Low Rolling Plains of Texas. Very large hail is possible along with damaging wind potential, and some tornado risk may exist as well, although low-level shear/SRH will tend to remain modest overall. ...Southern/Eastern Florida... Seasonally cool 500-mb temperatures (-8 to -10 deg C) and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast equatorward of a large-scale eastern U.S. upper trough over the East. Deep westerly flow favors an east coast sea breeze, and this should be where convection focuses as temperatures warm through the upper 80s and lower 90s. Localized severe gusts and large hail are the primary threats with this diurnally maximized convection. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic States... Sufficient buoyancy coincident with moderately strong wind profiles may support isolated severe low-topped storms this afternoon through around sunset in vicinity of a secondary frontal zone/triple point. ...Central High Plains... The eastward-migrating mid-level trough over the northern Rockies will favor southeasterly low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains. Modest moisture coupled with strong heating will yield 250-750 J/kg SBCAPE by mid-afternoon east of the Front Range. While storms should remain relatively isolated, elongated straight-line hodographs will support east-southeastward moving storms within an environment featuring steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8 deg C/km). Isolated large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts will be possible. ...Northern Idaho/southwest Montana/northwest Wyoming... Some stronger to locally severe low-topped storms may occur later today within a modestly moist/unstable environment ahead of the amplifying shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain region. 

Read more Thu, 22 May 2025 20:00:58 +0000 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html/202505222001 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html SPC May 22, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are expected across portions of the central into southern Plains on Friday, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats. More isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across portions of western Texas and southeast Florida. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging prevails over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West tomorrow (Friday). An embedded mid-level impulse will crest the central U.S. ridge, encouraging surface low development over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will cyclonically pivot around the low through the forecast period, with at least some of this moisture reaching the Colorado Front Range by late afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms should develop over the central High Plains during the afternoon, with additional development possible overnight across the central to southern Plains at the nose of a low-level jet. A few strong storms also remain possible over eastern parts of the Florida Peninsula along sea-breeze boundaries. ...Central High Plains (Late Afternoon and Evening)... By afternoon, southeasterly upslope flow along the higher terrain, from the Colorado Front Range to the WY/NE border, will advect adequate moisture that is pivoting northward around the surface low. At least mid 50s F surface dewpoints, beneath 9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. 40-50 kts of northwesterly 500 mb flow from the upper ridge, overspreading weaker southeasterly flow, will support elongated, mostly straight hodographs and corresponding 35-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Storms that form and move off of the higher terrain should be splitting supercells with mainly a large hail threat, perhaps accompanied by severe gusts as well. Given such steep lapse rates through a deep-layer of the troposphere, and elongated hodographs, 2+ inch diameter hail is possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ...Southern High Plains (Late Afternoon and Evening)... By afternoon peak heating, robust mixing within the boundary layer will encourage the eastward advancement of the dryline over western TX. Resultant low-level convergence along the dryline will support the development of high-based storms atop a surface airmass with mid 90s/upper 50s F temperatures/dewpoints. 8-9 C/km lapse rates through most of the troposphere will boost MLCAPE to 3000 J/kg, while gradual veering with height of the vertical wind profiles supports over 35+ kts of effective bulk shear. Isolated multicell complexes should develop, and given poor low-level shear and high evaporative cooling potential, these storms should be outflow dominant. A couple instances of large hail may accompany the stronger storm cores at the beginning of their life-cycles, followed by the potential for a severe gust or two when cold pools/outflow becomes dominant. Storms should diminish during the evening as the boundary layer stabilizes and the dryline retreats westward. ...Central into the Southern Plains (Overnight)... Considerable amounts of convective inhibition should be in place across much of the central into southern Plains tomorrow afternoon and evening, casting doubt on the persistence of the central High Plains supercells into this region overnight. However, even if the High Plains supercells dissipate, additional storm development is likely overnight. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet, centered at about 850 mb in altitude, is expected to develop over the southern Plains, with the terminus positioned over southern KS between 00-06Z. Elevated storms should develop along the terminus, atop the inversion layer (i.e. above 850 mb). 9+ C/km 850-500 mb lapse rates and elongated hodographs will support supercell structures with a large hail risk, though upscale growth into an MCS is possible, with a continued risk for hail and perhaps a few severe gusts if a strong enough cold pool can develop. ...Eastern Florida Peninsula (Afternoon)... By late morning into early afternoon, robust surface heating will support the mixing and destabilization of a moist boundary layer, with near 70 F dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates resulting in 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE. The strong surface heating will encourage the generation and onshore movement of sea-breeze boundaries, which in tandem with the heating will support thunderstorm initiation. Modest westerly mid-level flow overspreading this environment will encourage 30+ kts of effective bulk shear (modestly elongated, straight hodographs), supporting the potential for multicellular development, along with an isolated wind gust/hail threat with the stronger storms. ..Squitieri.. 05/22/2025 

Read more Thu, 22 May 2025 17:31:40 +0000 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html/202505222001 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html SPC May 22, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across portions of the southern Plains on Saturday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats, and a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail may occur. Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across a broad region from the central High Plains to the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward across the Interior West as upper ridging persists over the central CONUS, and broad northwesterly mid-level flow (from a departing trough) overspreads the Mid-MS Valley to the East Coast on Saturday. Relatively rich low-level moisture will continue to pivot around a quasi-stationary surface low over the southern High Plains, fueling the potential for strong thunderstorm development from the High Plains to the Southeast. Thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period over the central Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The morning convection may leave an outflow boundary to serve as the impetus for more robust, severe storm development Saturday afternoon across far northwest TX into western and central OK. ...Far Northwest Texas into Western and central Oklahoma... Mid-morning thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, will be traversing the terminus of a weakening low-level jet, leaving behind an outflow boundary, likely positioned somewhere near the KS/OK border. By afternoon, redevelopment of storms is likely ahead of the surface low and along/south of the pre-existing boundary. The airmass preceding these storms will be very to extremely unstable, with low 70s F dewpoints beneath 9+ C/km mid-level lapse supporting deep, wide CAPE profiles, with 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE values expected. Modest veering with height will support 35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by hodographs with some elongation and curvature. Given the expected degree of instability, supercells are the likely storm mode, with severe wind and large to very large hail the main threats. ...Portions of Western Texas... Strong heating of the boundary layer will encourage the eastward advancement of the dryline, which will support thunderstorm initiation by mid to late afternoon. These storms should be high-based as they develop atop a boundary layer that may extend up to at least 700 mb, with 30+ F T/Td spreads likely. Deep-layer flow and shear will be weaker farther south, and when considering the high degree of evaporative cooling expected in a dry boundary layer, outflow-dominant multicells are expected. An instance of severe hail may occur with initial updrafts, followed by severe gust potential with subsequent downbursts and larger scale outflow from decaying multicells. ...Central High Plains... Surface-850 mb upslope flow along the higher terrain of the central High Plains may encourage isolated thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. NAM forecast soundings show a stable boundary layer in place, suggesting that storms should be elevated. Nonetheless, forecast hodographs show considerable elongation above the stable layer, indicating that multicell and supercell structures are possible, perhaps accompanied by a sparse hail/strong gust threat. ...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... The aforementioned strong storms/possible MCS across the southern Plains during the morning hours may shift eastward along a diffuse baroclinic boundary. Assuming these storms persist toward the Southeast with some appreciable degree of intensity, an instance or two of strong wind gusts or hail are possible. Later Saturday evening/overnight, strong storms across the southern Plains may persist eastward as the low-level jet strengthens. Should this be the case, 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates (supporting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE), along with elongated hodographs, may support the approach of another nocturnal MCS, accompanied by a sparse wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 05/22/2025 

Read more Thu, 22 May 2025 19:26:06 +0000 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html/202505222001